Navigation:  Prospect/Field evaluation > Input parameters > Prospect Risking > Prospect Risking Schemes > Prospect Risking - Scheme 11

In this scheme, play chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and prospect chance is divided into six categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir, Source, Migration and Timing. There is also a model chance.

Each category has one or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. Scheme 11 is a "minimum risk" type, in each category chance is the minimum of the element chances. For example, suppose reservoir chance has two elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 90% then the reservoir chance is 80%.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 10%.

The Overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the ten category chances:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(source) x P(migration) x P(timing)

 

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.