Prospect risking

The prospect risking section is a single screen in which risk factors are entered for the main elements of the play and prospect.

REP has a number of alternative risking schemes that you can use. However, all share the same basic concept: the overall chance of success of a prospect is divided into the two main categories of play chance and prospect specific chance. Some explorationists are uncomfortable with the concept of play chance and prefer to use only prospect specific chance. If you are one of these, set play chance to be 100%. Others prefer different chance categories or different nomenclature. These can be set up in the 'Site Customization Section'. You should note, however, that the way a prospect is risked is generally a matter of corporate policy and - if you will forgive the warning - should only be changed with good reason.

Play chance is the chance that at least one prospect in the play is to be discovered. If, in the play, some oil or gas has already been discovered then - other things being equal - play chance is 100%. Prospect specific chance is the chance that a specific prospect contains hydrocarbons assuming that there is (or will be) at least one discovery in the play.

In most schemes:

Play chance is divided into reservoir, seal and source chance.

Prospect specific chance is divided into trap, reservoir, seal and migration chance.

For each of chance elements you should enter the chance as a percentage, with 100% indicating certainty of success.

As you change the numbers, the overall chances (play chance, prospect specific chance and prospect chance) are automatically updated. The overall chance of success is the chance that the minimum amount of hydrocarbon will be found.

The concepts of play and prospect specific chance become especially relevant when you come to consolidate your results.

See our 'Prospect Risking Schemes' section for more information on the different risking schemes.