Navigation:  Prospect/Field evaluation > Input parameters > Prospect Risking > Prospect Risking Schemes > Prospect Risking - Scheme 23

In this scheme, overall prospect chance has only prospect specific items.

Prospect Chance is divided into five categories: reservoir, seal, structure, charge and recovery

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the prospect specific risk elements:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(structure) x P(charge) x P(recovery)

 

To each risk category you can also assign a confidence, based on your level of knowledge and supporting data. The confidence can be plotted against chance in a plot:

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.