Navigation:  Prospect/Field evaluation > Input parameters > Prospect Risking > Prospect Risking Schemes > Prospect Risking - Scheme 28

In this scheme, Overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance, Prospect Specific Chance and amplitude modifier. The amplitude modifier is added to the product of play chance and prospect specific chance to account for any direct hydrocarbon indicator. It can be negative.

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source (or Regional Reservoir, Regional Seal and Regional Source).

Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

You can also enter you knowledge/confidence of each chance category, as a percentage.

This is a multiplicative scheme, so all chances in all categories are multiplied together to get the final GPOS. For example, Reservoir Chance has 2 elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 90% then the Reservoir Chance is 72%.

There is also an amplitude modifier

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) + Amp Mod

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)

 

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.