Prospect Risking - Scheme 2 |
  
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Prospect Risking - Scheme 2 |
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Scheme 2 has a single value for Play chance. The Prospect Specific chance is divided into three sections: Reservoir, Trap and Source. Each of these elements is described by Presence and Effectiveness and you assign a probability to each. This is a multiplicative scheme: the chance elements are multiplied together.
You can also enter an chance modifier, presumably based on some observed amplitude anomaly or lack of it.
The overall chance of success is the play chance and the three prospect specific chances multiplied together, plus the amplitude modifier, if any.
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.
Play chance |
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Play chance |
Select the play chance (%) |
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Reservoir |
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Presence |
Select the (prospect specific) reservoir presence chance (%) |
Effectiveness |
Select the (prospect specific) reservoir effectiveness chance (%) |
Total |
Total reservoir chance P(presence) x P(effectiveness) |
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Trap |
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Presence |
Select the (prospect specific) trap presence chance (%) |
Effectiveness |
Select the (prospect specific) trap effectiveness chance (%) |
Total |
Total trap chance: P(presence) x P(effectiveness) |
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Source |
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Presence |
Select the (prospect specific) source presence chance (%) |
Effectiveness |
Select the (prospect specific) source effectiveness chance (%) |
Total |
Total source chance: P(presence) x P(effectiveness) |
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Amplitude modifier |
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Amplitude prospect |
Check if you wish to use the modifier |
Modifier |
The chance to be added to (or subtracted from) the total. |
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Overall prospect specific |
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Prospect specific chance |
Total prospect specific chance: P(reservoir) x P(trap) x P(source) |
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Overall prospect chance |
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Overall prospect chance |
Overall prospect specific chance: P(play) x P(prospect specific) |