Prospect Risking - Scheme 3 |
  
|
Prospect Risking - Scheme 3 |
|
Scheme 3 has three categories of play risk and four categories of prospect specific chance. You can give each category your own name and you can also link probability ranges with names. For example, you can label probabilities between 25% and 50% "Possible" and below 25% as "Risky".
The overall chance of success is the seven chances multiplied together:
Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x (prospect specific)
P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)
P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration)
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.
Juxtaposition, thicknesses, pinchout, fault throw, halokinesis, re-activation, fracture gradient, analogues, gas-chimneys, seepages, DHI, etc.
Play chance |
|
Reservoir |
Select the play reservoir chance (%) |
Source |
Select the play source chance (%) |
Seal |
Select the play seal chance (%) |
|
|
Prospect specific chance |
|
Trap |
Select the prospect specific trap chance (%) |
Reservoir |
Select the prospect specific reservoir chance (%) |
Seal |
Select the prospect specific seal chance (%) |
Source |
Select the prospect specific source chance (%) |
|
|
Geological chance of success |
|
Geological Chance of Success |
Total geological chance of success (P(play) x P(prospect specific)) |