Prospect Risking - Scheme 4 |
  
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Prospect Risking - Scheme 4 |
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Scheme 4 has three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and three of prospect specific risk: Trap, Reservoir and Migration. There are two additional risks: Model risk and Phase risk.
The overall chance of success is the eight chances multiplied together:
Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model) x P(phase)
P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)
P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(migration)
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.
Model risk |
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Model |
Select the model risk (%) |
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Play risk |
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Reservoir |
Select the play reservoir risk (%) |
Seal |
Select the play seal risk (%) |
Source |
Select the play source risk (%) |
Total |
Total play risk (P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)) |
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Prospect specific risk |
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Trap |
Select the prospect specific trap risk (%) |
Reservoir |
Select the prospect specific reservoir risk (%) |
Migration |
Select the prospect specific migration risk (%) |
Total |
Total prospect specific risk (P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(migration)) |
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Phase risk |
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Phase |
Select the phase risk (%) |
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Overall chance of success |
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Overall prospect chance |
Total overall prospect chance (P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model) x P(phase) |