Navigation:  Prospect/Field evaluation > Input parameters > Prospect Risking > Prospect Risking Schemes > Prospect Risking - Scheme 5

In this scheme, Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a minimum risking scheme, the category chance is the lowest of all the element chances. For example, Reservoir Chance has two elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 60% then 'effectiveness' is the determining element and the Reservoir Chance is 60%.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 10%.

You can also enter an Amplitude modifier uplift (or downlift) if there is an amplitude anomaly, as per the SAAM consortium.

 

The Overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the four category chances, plus the modifier.

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)  + Amplitude modifier

 

Tip: Answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

 

 

 

The critical chance shown on on the left hand play is the controlling chance (the one with the highest risk).