Prospect Risking - Scheme 6

Scheme 6 has three categories of Play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and five of Prospect Specific risk: Trap, Reservoir, Seal, Migration and Timing.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration) x P(timing)

Risking Scheme 6

Considerations

You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Trap

Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

Reservoir

Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

Seal

Juxtaposition, thicknesses, pinchout, fault throw, halokinesis, re-activation, fracture gradient, analogues, gas-chimneys, seepages, DHI, etc

Migration

Timing

Play chance
Reservoir	Select the play reservoir chance (%)
Seal	Select the play seal chance (%)
Source	Select the play source chance (%)
Play chance	Total play chance (P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source))

Prospect specific chance
Trap	Select the prospect specific trap chance (%)
Reservoir	Select the prospect specific reservoir chance (%)
Seal	Select the prospect specific seal chance (%)
Migration	Select the prospect specific migration chance (%)
Timing	Select the prospect specific timing chance (%)
Prospect specific chance	Total prospect specific chance (P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration) x P(timing))

Overall chance of success
Chance	Overall chance of success (P(play) x P(prospect specific))